According to BNamericas, the demand pattern “turned south this year,” which would indicate the impact of COVID-19 as the country locked down to contain the pandemic.
On March 6, the government announced Peru’s first confirmed case of COVID-19 and declared a state of emergency and 15-day mandatory quarantine on March 16 that was later extended to April 12.
Information from grid coordinator COES shows that after five years of growth, consumption slid 6 per cent sequentially in March and fell nearly 12 per cent year-on-year.
A review of weekly COES numbers also reveals the substantial drop in power generation. Production rose 3 per cent the week of March 7 to 13 compared with the year-ago period, but output in the weeks of March 14 to 20 and 21 to 27 fell 17 and 31 per cent, respectively.
Previous guidance from the grid coordinator forecast a 4.8% increase in offtake for 2020.
In the three-week period, which falls within the rainy season, thermo generation – almost entirely fired by natural gas – fell 54% from a year ago, while production from hydro and renewables remained stable. Gas-fired plants saw their contribution fall from 27% in the week of March 7 to 13 to 13.7% and 3% in the weeks of March 14 to 20 and 21 to 27. Hydro’s share rose from 64.4% to 74.6% and 82%.
Hydro makes up 39% of Peru’s total installed capacity, and the country added more than 168 MW of hydroelectric generating capacity in 2019.
