Major operators on the Norwegian continental shelf, including Equinor, Aker BP, and Vår Energi, are shifting priority toward production drilling and optimising existing fields rather than pursuing new exploration targets.
"This is due to a combination of the fact that some companies will prioritise production drilling next year, but also somewhat fewer good prospects," Offshore Norway stated.
The decline comes despite government efforts to encourage continued exploration to maintain long-term production levels from Europe's largest petroleum supplier. Authorities plan to offer new acreage in less-explored frontier areas, including the Barents Sea, through a licensing round scheduled for next year.
Total petroleum investments in Norway are forecast to decrease by 4% to 270 billion Norwegian crowns ($26.83 billion) in 2026, a smaller drop than the 8% decline previously anticipated. The moderated reduction reflects higher project costs, scope expansions on certain developments, and increased activity aimed at maximising recovery from mature fields, the association explained.
Statistics Norway (SSB) has issued a similar outlook, confirming lower capital spending next year.
The slowdown is expected to affect the country's extensive supply chain, particularly companies engaged in platform construction and the completion of large field developments. In contrast, providers of subsea services, maintenance, modifications, and drilling rigs are likely to experience relatively milder impact, according to Offshore Norway.
The survey results highlight a broader industry trend toward capital discipline and prioritising returns from existing assets over aggressive exploration in the current market environment.
