China’s Quarterly CO2 Emissions Fall on the Back of a Renewable Energy Surge

In the first quarter of 2025, China achieved a 1.6% year-on-year reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, despite a 2.5% increase in national electricity demand, according to an analysis by Carbon Brief. This decline was driven by significant growth in clean energy sources, including wind, solar, and nuclear power, which offset emissions from coal-based generation.

The surge in clean energy production reflects substantial investments in renewable and nuclear technologies over recent years. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, highlighted the significance of this milestone, stating: “This is the first time clean energy had been responsible for a decrease in China’s CO2 emissions.” He noted that previous reductions were linked to economic downturns rather than sustainable energy shifts.

Myllyvirta suggested that sustained progress could indicate that China’s power sector emissions have peaked, aligning with President Xi Jinping’s commitment to reach this milestone before 2030. Data showing stable or declining CO2 output for over a year supports the potential for a lasting trend. However, he cautioned: “As the quarter’s emissions were only slightly less than the latest peak, any short-term jump could cause China’s CO2 emissions to rise to a new record.”

China’s clean energy advancements have positioned it as a leader in renewable energy deployment. The country’s focus on expanding wind, solar, and nuclear capacity has enabled it to meet growing electricity needs while reducing reliance on coal. This balance is critical as China continues to drive industrial and economic growth.

Carbon Brief’s analysis underscores China’s role in global emissions, noting that it surpassed the United States as the world’s largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases in 2006. However, its cumulative and per-capita emissions remain significantly lower than those of the U.S., reflecting different historical and developmental contexts.

The first-quarter results demonstrate China’s progress in integrating clean energy into its power mix, supporting environmental goals while meeting rising energy demands. Continued investment in renewable technologies and infrastructure will be key to maintaining this downward trend in emissions, contributing to global efforts to address climate change and promote sustainable energy solutions.