European Union leaders gathered on Thursday to forge a joint response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with differing views on how far to go with economic sanctions, how quickly to cut Russian energy imports and whether or not to let Ukraine join their bloc swiftly.
“If sanctions on coal trade with Russia eventuate or there is a physical disruption to Russian rail/port transportation, then the sky’s the limit (for coal prices),” Rystad Energy said.
The threat of additional demand and lack of available supply is moving the market, it added.
Russia provides the EU with more than 40% of its natural gas, more than a quarter of its oil imports and almost half of its coal.
Adding to supply concerns, Australia declared a national emergency on Wednesday in response to devastating floods along its east coast which affected coal producing regions of the country.
These weather-related disruptions reduced total exports in the first two months of 2022 from Port Kembla Coal Terminal by 15% compared to the same period last year, said Plamen Natzkoff, senior trade expert at VesselsValue.