Power Grid

22 Jan 2022

Japan’s Power Demand Forecast to Fall Towards 2031-32

22 Jan 2022  by   
Japan's electricity demand is forecast to fall towards the April 2031-March 2032 fiscal year, following a steady recovery over 2021-24 from Covid-19-induced slumps.

Japan's power consumption is estimated at 822,870GWh in 2031-32, down by 1.6pc from pre-pandemic 2019-20, according to national power agency the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (Occto). Occto made the forecast based on demand outlooks provided by the country's grid operators.

Japan's power demand is forecast to rebound to 837,168GWh in 2023-24, up by 2.3pc from 818,623GWh in 2020-21, backed by a steady recovery in the country's economic activity from Covid-19-related restrictions. Demand from commercial and industry consumers is forecast to increase by 3.8pc to 200,298GWh and by 6.4pc to 333,583GWh respectively over the period, which more than offsets a 2.8pc fall in consumption in the household sector to 303,286GWh.

But power demand is anticipated to decline after 2023-24. A falling population and energy saving efforts are likely to outweigh the impact of increased use of electrical appliances and economic expansion, Occto said.

Occto also forecasts that Japan will see 162,296MW of peak demand in 2021-22, before falling back to 157,458MW in 2031-32. The country's peak demand reached 158,738MW in 2019-20, before the Covid-19 pandemic struck.

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