Power Grid

15 Jan 2021

Electricity to form 30% of Turkey Energy Demand by 2040

15 Jan 2021  by Nuran Erkul Kaya   

Turkey's power demand is forecast to be the fastest growing among other energy types, accounting for 30% of total final energy demand by 2040, director of Sabanci University Istanbul’s International Center for Energy and Climate (IICEC), told Anadolu Agency on Wednesday.

Electricity demand currently represents 20% of Turkey’s total energy demand, according to the IICEC's recently published Turkey Energy Outlook report analyzing the Turkish energy sector through to 2040.

"Turkey's final energy demand will grow by around 40% by 2040 while electricity demand will be around 70% to 90% during the same period. With this increase, the share of electricity demand in final energy demand will reach 30%, as electricity is seeing the fastest growth among other energy types," Bora Sekip Guray, the IICEC director said.

He cited Turkey's young population, its developing industry and increasing electrification as the main contributing factors for this power demand increase.

Therefore, Guray advocated for investment growth in both Turkey’s electricity sector, which he said needs to be in region of around $8 billion by 2040, and also in the renewable energy sector.

According to the IICEC's studies, solar and wind currently hold an 11% share in Turkey's total energy generation but this share is forecast to increase to 36% by 2040.

"Considering the contribution from other renewables including hydro, geothermal and biomass, the share of renewables in total electricity generation will reach 60%," he said, adding that a growth in domestic and renewable capacity would help Turkey reduce its energy import bill and support the local manufacture of clean energy technologies.

Turkey's installed renewable energy capacity of 49,500 megawatts accounts for more than half of the total installed electricity capacity of 95,000 megawatts.

- Natural gas and energy storage will still be central for energy sector’s future

Even though the share of natural gas plants in Turkey’s electricity generation dropped dramatically from 50% in the last few years to the current 20%, thanks to the growth of renewable, natural gas plants are nonetheless set to continue to play a crucial and balancing role in bridging the power supply gap by offering flexible power when renewable generation is insufficient.

Guray argued that energy storage technologies could also provide similar supply flexibility.

"We see a number of investment opportunities for energy storage technologies in Turkey. Turkey's first indigenous and all-electric automobile prototype will contribute much to the development of energy storage technologies and investments in Turkey," he said.

In June 2018, five industrial giants: the Anadolu Group, BMC, Kok Group, Turkcell, and Zorlu Holding as well as an umbrella organization, the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey, joined forces to form Turkey's Automobile Joint Venture Group (TOGG) to produce Turkey's first domestically manufactured electric vehicle.

By 2030, TOGG will produce and own the intellectual and industrial property rights of five different electric vehicle (EV) models in Turkey - SUV, b-SUV, sedan, c-hatchback, and b-MPV.

Turkey inaugurated the first Eti Maden Lithium Production Plant in the country's central province of Eskisehir last month. The lithium from the production plant will be used in components for these EVs.

Guray also maintained that the share of local sources for power generation would increase after Turkey's first nuclear plant becomes operational and the country begins using its natural gas production from the Black Sea region.

Turkey discovered a total of 405 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the Black Sea region in 2020 and first production from the field is planned to start by 2023.

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