OPEC+ approved an oil production quota increase of about 188,000 barrels per day from September, the producer group said on August 2, completing the unwinding of a layer of voluntary output cuts.
Successive monthly increases by OPEC+ through much of this year have had limited impact on the market, as export disruptions from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan, caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars, have kept much of the additional supply largely on paper.
The September increase, agreed by core OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, completes the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut originally agreed in 2023. At that time, the group also included the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC in May.
OPEC+ sources said before the meeting that the group was likely to pause output increases in the fourth quarter. However, Sunday’s statement did not mention any decision for the final three months of 2026.
Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, said a pause remained a feasible option.
“OPEC+ has finished unwinding its voluntary cuts. The next challenge is managing the surplus that could emerge as export flows normalise,” Leon said. “Having completed the restoration campaign, OPEC+ has little incentive to rush into further supply changes. Our base case is a fourth-quarter pause while the group prepares for the 2027 quota negotiations.”
OPEC also said a separate meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee was held on Sunday. The panel reiterated concern about attacks on energy assets during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, saying such attacks were expensive and time-consuming to repair and therefore affected supply.
After the September increase, OPEC+ still has another layer of output cuts in place for most of its members. Those cuts, amounting to roughly 2 million bpd, date back to 2022 and are scheduled to remain in effect until the end of this year.
The group is also reviewing members’ oil production capacity, which will be used to set 2027 output baselines and quotas. The process could lead to difficult negotiations, as some members, including Iraq, are seeking higher individual quotas to reflect increased capacity.
OPEC+ has 21 members, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies. In recent years, only the seven core countries, along with the UAE before its departure, have been involved in monthly production management.
The seven members are scheduled to hold their next meeting on September 6.
