Declining Wheat Quotes Reduce Export Demand in Ukraine

Falling wheat prices in the United States, driven by favorable weather for spring and winter crop development, have reduced export demand for Ukrainian wheat. As of April 2025, export prices for food wheat at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports held steady at 10,950–11,200 UAH/t or $234–236/t, while feed wheat prices ranged from 10,550–10,600 UAH/t or $225–226/t. Traders show stronger interest in food wheat, with feed wheat demand declining, leading to an unusual $10/t price gap, as feed wheat is typically mixed for export rather than shipped directly.

From April 1–28, Ukraine exported 628,000 tons of wheat, a sharp drop from 1.7 million tons during the same period last year. Total exports for the 2024/25 season reached 13.75 million tons, down 13% from the previous year. Global price declines are capping purchase price growth in Ukraine, and farmers are reluctant to sell due to uncertainties about the upcoming harvest amid ongoing drought conditions.

By April 24, Ukrainian farmers had sown 200,000 hectares of spring wheat, covering 88% of the planned 227,500 hectares. However, insufficient rainfall has limited further expansion of sowing areas. Meanwhile, global wheat futures saw declines on April 27: Chicago’s soft winter SRW wheat fell 2.7% to $195.1/t, Kansas City’s durum winter HRW wheat dropped 2.1% to $198.3/t, Minneapolis’ durum spring HRS wheat decreased 1.6% to $218.8/t, and Paris’ Euronext wheat fell 1.6% to €206.5/t ($235.4/t).

The U.S. Crop Progress report, released April 27, indicated that 30% of U.S. spring wheat areas were sown, surpassing the five-year average of 21%. Winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition rose by 4% to 49%, matching last year’s level. U.S. wheat exports grew by 26.5% to 646,500 tons during April 17–24, totaling 19.46 million tons for the season, up 14.9% from last year. The USDA forecasts U.S. exports could reach 22.3 million tons by June 1.

In the EU, soft wheat exports for the 2024/25 season (as of April 20) fell 34% to 17.1 million tons due to higher prices compared to competitors, making the USDA’s 26.5 million-ton projection unlikely. EU wheat imports dropped 14% to 6.62 million tons and are expected to decline further after June 1 due to restrictions on Ukrainian wheat supplaies.

Russian wheat (12.5% protein) prices for May delivery decreased by $1/t to $249/t FOB, following similar declines in Romanian ($247/t), French ($242/t), American ($226/t), and Argentine ($247/t) wheat. Active spring wheat sowing in the U.S. and Russia, combined with rainfall in key winter wheat regions, continues to exert downward pressure on global wheat markets.