Despite a quieter trading period on European exchanges, driven by a weekend lull on Euronext, the Ukrainian rapeseed market remains active. Prices on Euronext stayed within a narrow range, but analysts see potential for growth. “New crop rapeseed prices are currently fluctuating within the local level of 475–480 €/t. If this price threshold is overcome, further growth in quotations to 500–510 €/t is possible,” PUSK analysts stated.
In Ukraine, the market shows stronger momentum. Conditional prices for July–August port deliveries range from $510–515/t (excluding VAT), while processors offer higher rates of $535–545/t (including VAT), with some bids reaching $550–560/t. The supply-demand imbalance is a key driver, with 1.7–1.8 million tons of rapeseed already contracted for export, but only 1.3 million tons purchased. “Despite limited activity on European exchanges, the Ukrainian market is demonstrating price growth. The main factor is the imbalance between the volumes of already concluded export contracts and actual purchases,” PUSK reported, noting that traders need to secure an additional 100,000–500,000 tons to meet demand.
This shortfall sustains elevated prices and may drive further increases. Weather concerns, particularly frost risks, are also impacting the market, as farmers hesitate to commit to forward contracts. “There will be few forwards – farmers are afraid of risks. The main trade will probably be on the spot,” PUSK experts predicted. The forecasted price for July–September deliveries is $540–560/t on a CPT-port basis.
The tight supply and robust European demand highlight the dynamic nature of Ukraine’s rapeseed market. Processors’ willingness to pay premium prices reflects the urgency to secure stocks, while farmers’ caution due to weather uncertainties adds complexity. As the market navigates these challenges, analysts anticipate continued price strength, driven by the need to fulfill export commitments and maintain supply stability.
