The USDA maintained its 2023-’24 forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural and Supply Estimate report, released Nov. 9. The agency’s estimate for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production was revised up.
The USDA said its current 2023-’24 soybean outlook is for increased production and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.13 billion bushels, up 25 million on higher yields. The largest production changes are for Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota and Ohio.
The USDA currently expects 12.8 billion pounds of soybean oil to go to biofuel production for 2023-’24, a forecast maintained from the October WASDE. The agency revised its estimate for 20222-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production to 12.4 billion pounds, up from 12.1 billion pounds as estimated last month. Soybean oil use in biofuel production as at 10.379 billion pounds for 2021-’22.
With crush and exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023-’24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 61 cent per pound, while the soybean meal price is unchanged at $380 per short ton.
The global 2023-’24 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower beginning stocks, higher production, higher crush and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are reduced 1.6 million tons, reflecting offsetting back-year balance sheet revisions for China and Brazil. China’s beginning stocks are reduced on lower soybean imports for 2021-’22 and 2022-’23 and higher crush for 2022-’23. Conversely, Brazil’s beginning stocks are increased on a larger 2022-’23 crop of 158 million tons due to higher-than-expected use to date.
Global 2023-’24 soybean production is raised 900,000 tons to 400.4 million, mainly on higher production for Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for China and Russia. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.1 million tons as higher stocks for Brazil and the U.S. are more than offset by lower stocks for China.