Oil & Gas

23 Feb 2022

Oil Prices Could Jump by $20 if Ukraine Crisis Worsens, Warns BofA

23 Feb 2022  by   

Oil prices could jump by $20 if Ukraine crisis worsens, warns BofA (Photo: Reuters)
Global oil benchmark Brent crude could rise by $5-$20 a barrel depending on the severity of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Bank of America (BofA) Global Research said on Tuesday, adding that prices could drop by $2-$4 if tensions de-escalate.

Oil hit its highest since 2014 on Tuesday, with Brent futures reaching $99.50 a barrel after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.

The bank sees Brent heading to $120 a barrel by mid-2022, with fundamentals justifying a near-term spike and demand projected to rise by 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) to surpass pre-pandemic levels at nearly 101 million bpd this year.

"A weaker dollar trend and a pro-growth macro backdrop, if it indeed occurs, could support crude near triple digits in the second half of the year," the bank said in a research note.

A potential nuclear deal with Iran and associated sanctions relief would quickly translate into lower oil prices, the bank's analysts noted.

Analysts at BofA believe Brent prices will need to average $60 to $80 per barrel to keep the global oil market in balance out to 2027.


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