As the world’s second-largest corn exporter after the United States, Brazil significantly impacts global markets. Its corn ethanol production has surged to 8.25 billion liters in 2024-25, up from 140 million liters a decade ago, driven by 25 ethanol plants and 15 more under construction. Production is projected to reach 10 billion liters in 2025-26, comprising one-third of Brazil’s total ethanol output, with sugarcane ethanol covering the rest. Colussi explained: “A major driver of this growth is expansion of second crop corn, primarily planted in the central-west region.”
The second crop now represents 80 percent of Brazil’s corn production. The ethanol sector consumed 722 million bushels in 2024-25, a sharp rise from 16 million bushels ten years ago, accounting for 15 percent of total corn output. The livestock sector, the world’s second-largest poultry producer, uses 2.5 billion bushels annually, while 925 million bushels go to food, seed, and industrial uses, including ethanol. Colussi stated: “Over the past decade, Brazil’s domestic corn consumption has jumped by 53 per cent.”
With growing domestic demand, Brazil’s corn exports, estimated at 44 million tonnes in 2024-25, are likely to decline from the 2022-23 peak of 54 million tonnes. Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale Inc., commented: “We can probably expect their soybean exports to still show continuous increases for at least three more years.” He added: “But I think on the corn end, you could argue that maybe this would be a move that would stabilize their export numbers.”
Local corn prices in Brazil reached $6.57 per bushel in March, the highest since 2022. The combination of high domestic prices and a weaker U.S. dollar against the Brazilian real provides short-term advantages for U.S. corn exporters, who have lost market share to Brazil over recent decades. A potential reduction in Brazil’s corn exports could further support U.S. exporters in the long term, stabilizing global market dynamics.
