Fitch Solutions has cited the significant installed geothermal capacity of the Philippines and potential for substantial growth in citing the country as an "outperformer."
Financial information services company Fitch Solutions has included the Philippines among the countries that are considered “outperforming” in the geothermal sector. Fitch Solutions defines outperformers are geothermal power markets that have a significant capacity base installed and are expected to post substantial growth over the forecast period.
“The Philippines has one of the world’s highest levels of installed geothermal capacity as well as it making up a large share of its total renewables output,” according to the Fitch report.
Within the span of a 10-year forecast period, Fitch Solutions expects that geothermal power will be the country’s dominant source of renewable electricity output aside from hydropower.
From a total installed capacity of 1,918 MW last year, the country is expected to post an average of 1.1% growth from 2022 to 2032. By 2031, the forecasted installed capacity will be at 2,145 MW.
The Philippines currently holds the 3rd position globally in terms of geothermal installed capacity. However, Fitch Solutions expects the Philippines to fall to 4th place by 2025 as most of the country’s proven geothermal reserves have already been commercialized. The potential reserves, on the other hand, are in more inaccessible areas.
There is still cause for optimism as new exploration surveys have been launched since June 2018. About 10 deals have been inked by the Philippine authorities with companies for the drilling of exploratory wells. Four geothermal projects with a combined capacity of 542 MW have also been endorsed by the Department of Energy for a power grid impact study.
Fitch Solutions also cited the granting of certification of energy projects of national significance (EPNS) to the geothermal projects in Kalinga and Mount Malinao, with potential capacities of 120 MW and 12 MW respectively. The certification is meant to help speed up the approval process for the projects.