Fitch named the Philippines as one of the outperformers in the geothermal sector, along with the United States.
It expects the country’s geothermal capacity to reach 2,145MW by 2031, with the sector poised to become the dominant source of non-hydropower renewable power output, accounting for an annual average share of 64% of the total renewable generation.
However, Fitch remains “bearish” on the prospects of the geothermal power capacity in the Philippines as most of its proven reserves have been commercialised, whilst the unproven potential reserves of under 2.4 gigawatts were in more inaccessible locations.
“Over the next decade, we forecast only 217MW of geothermal capacity to come online in the market. By 2025, we forecast that Turkey will overtake the Philippines for a total installed geothermal capacity, though it will still be the world's fourth largest geothermal market,” the report read.
On the other hand, Fitch said that the rise in geothermal exploration presents an upside risk to the subdued geothermal capacity and generation forecast.
It cited amongst others that 10 contracts the Philippine Government signed with companies in June 2018 for new exploration surveys. The country’s energy department has also reclassified geothermal as a mineral resource, allowing full foreign investment into geothermal projects.