Oil & Gas

14 Feb 2021

Oil Falls Again as Opec and IEA Caution Ends Rally

14 Feb 2021  by   

Oil prices fell a second day on Friday, extending losses after Opec cut its demand forecast and the International Energy Agency said the market was still over-supplied.

A drilling rig at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina. Reuters

Brent crude was down 0.8 per cent at $60.67 a barrel, having dropped half a percent the previous session. US oil was down 0.9 per cent at $57.71 a barrel, after falling by 0.8 per cent on Thursday.

Both benchmarks closed on Wednesday at their highest levels since January 2020 after a nearly record-setting run of consecutive daily gains.

Oil prices have risen over the last few weeks as Opec and other producers in the group known as Opec+ cut production, while Saudi Arabia also promised unilateral reductions in output that started this month.

"Opec production is likely to fall this month led by declines in Saudi Arabia and Libya. This should deepen the global market deficit and support prices," said Capital Economics.

Before the declines, US crude's relative strength index was at the most overbought level since the second Iraq war, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities.

"There are some signs that the market is setting up for a pullback," he said.

Oil demand around the world in 2021 will recover more slowly than earlier thought, the Opec said.

Previously, the IEA said oil supply was still outstripping demand globally, although Covid-19 vaccines are expected to help demand recover.

US crude inventories dropped unexpectedly last week, declining by more than 6 million barrels as refiners increased output to pre-pandemic levels, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Analysts in a poll had forecast a rise of nearly 1 million barrels.

Still, gasoline inventories increased more than expected, gaining by 4.3 million barrels in the last week, against forecasts of a 1.8 million rise.

Gasoline demand over the last four weeks is 10 per cent below the same time last year.

Oil-exporting countries stand to lose nearly $13 trillion in revenue by 2040 as global economies continue to decarbonise their power systems, according to a report by Carbon Tracker.

As countries around the world lower their carbon footprint and energy companies set net-zero emissions targets over the coming decades oil exporting economies will face an existential crisis.


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