Angola's upstream regulator ANGP has revised down its forecast for the country's 2020 crude production to take into account the Opec+ agreement. The agency predicts a slight rebound next year but expects the growth to be short-lived.
ANGP forecasts that Angolan crude output will average just over 1.28mn b/d this year, down from its previous projection of 1.4mn b/d. Angola's production quota under the Opec+ deal was 1.18mn b/d in May-July and is 1.25mn b/d for the rest of the year. Argus estimates that output averaged 1.3mn b/d in the first seven months of this year.
ANGP expects production will be around 1.3mn b/d in 2021, but it forecasts that natural decline at ageing oil fields will leave output below 1.2mn b/d by 2023, under 1mn b/d by 2025 and barely above 500,000 b/d by the end of the decade. Angola began producing oil back in 1955, and its output has fallen steadily since peaking at 1.9mn b/d in 2008.
Much-needed exploration and development work has been put on hold because of the Covid-19 pandemic, although Total is preparing to resume activity in Angola's prolific block 17, which already hosts four major hubs: Girassol, Dalia, Pazflor and Clov. The firm is taking the Maersk Voyager drillship to the block to restart drilling at the end of this month, while Seadrill's West Gemini is expected to reach the block in the next few months.
The drillships will be used to develop second phases of the Zinia and Clov projects. Total is also planning to use the Skyros drillship to carry out further development in block 32, home to Angola's newest crude streams Mostarda and Gindungo.